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Strategy Evolution

Genetic algorithm that breeds, paper-tests, and stat-gates new strategies on a continuous loop.

What it is

Strategy Evolution is a research engine that automates the entire quant workflow:

1. Generate — each cycle, ~20 new strategy genomes are spawned via crossover + mutation from the top-quartile survivors. Population diversity is enforced (no monoculture). 2. Backtest — every candidate runs through walk-forward OOS validation. 3. Stat-gate — three independent tests must pass: DSR (Deflated Sharpe Ratio), White's Reality Check (against the full search universe to avoid survivor bias), and PBO (Probability of Backtest Overfitting). 4. Paper-trade — survivors run live in paper mode against real market data. 5. Lifecycle — Qualified → Paper → Canary → Live. Auto-kill on Sharpe degradation or DD breach.

Public dashboard: `/lab` → Evolution tab. Admin controls: force promote, kill switch, manual reseed.

Why it's safe

Evolution is additive, not destructive:

  • The locked Phase 37 baseline keeps trading regardless of what Evolution discovers
  • Candidates ship at weight = 0 and stay in shadow until 28+ days of OOS validation
  • Promotion to live requires admin approval + 4-week green-window
  • Every promotion, kill, and parameter change is logged to immutable lifecycle transitions
  • The stat-gates run on the FULL candidate population — survivor bias and overfitting can't sneak through

Result: an always-running R&D pipeline that can adapt to regime shifts without ever putting your capital at risk during discovery.

How it composes with the orchestrator

Surviving strategies don't immediately enter the production allocator. They enter the 9-signal orchestrator ensemble as a conditional 10th signal, also at weight 0, and walk the same shadow-validation gauntlet as every other new signal (see `/help/ai-evolution`).

This is the unique part: Evolution doesn't just generate strategies — it generates calibrated signals that the orchestrator can blend with the existing 9. The system improves itself, but only through the same rigour we'd apply to an external researcher.